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What's The Story Will Oil Prices?

6.9K views 74 replies 33 participants last post by  08mor  
#1 · (Edited by Moderator)
Why has oil risen so badly? It's approx $1.16 a barrel. In 2003 it was only $32 a barrel
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. Is it because we are running out and all doomed in a couple of years or is it just because worldwide demand has increased so much that the extra production to keep up is costing the oil companies more money hence the rise?
 
#2 ·
My apologies i have just posted in wrong section, can mods sort? Sorry
 
#3 · (Edited by Moderator)
QUOTE (Micky 32 @ May 3 2008, 11:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Why has oil risen so badly? It's approx $1.16 a barrel. In 2003 it was only $32 a barrel
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. Is it because we are running out and all doomed in a couple of years or is it just because worldwide demand has increased so much that the extra production to keep up is costing the oil companies more money hence the rise?

It actually has very little to do with the supply of oil.

The dollar is directly linked to oil. If the dollar drops (as it has) people will invest elsewhere(buy oil) this creates a high supply of dollars and a high demand for oil. This reduces the value of the dollar but increases the value of oil. The fact that oil is valued in dollars means that the true story of both the rising cost of oil and the weakness of the dollar are hidden in the exchange. Basically things are a lot worse than most people think!
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On a similar topic i was driving down the quays in Dublin yesterday... 179.9 and all the pumps were in use!!!!
 
#5 ·
Apparently its not that the oil is running out its that the 'easy to harvest' oil is running out. Meaning it'll cost more to harvest the new oil fields but by now they surely have the techniques to do it without costing too much more. Its funny how this has all hapened and we're affected quite a bit yet in the US they're stilling buying 3 and 4ltr cars like theres no problem in it at all.
 
#6 ·
QUOTE (hypnotoad @ May 3 2008, 12:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Apparently its not that the oil is running out its that the 'easy to harvest' oil is running out. Meaning it'll cost more to harvest the new oil fields but by now they surely have the techniques to do it without costing too much more. Its funny how this has all hapened and we're affected quite a bit yet in the US they're stilling buying 3 and 4ltr cars like theres no problem in it at all.

thats because petrol is still approx $1.20 a Gallon in the states. 1 US gallon = 3.8 liters. thats 31 US cents a liter.
or twenty cents a liter in euro.
I was in the states 3 years ago for the F1 race in indy and we hired an RV . it had a 4.7 liter V10 petrol engine ! petrol prices then were $1 a gallon . it took $120 to fill it up . 120 gallons =approx 450 liters 450 lts @ E 1.30 = 585 euro
so we pay aprox 5 - 6 times the price of petrol in the US.
 
#9 ·
QUOTE (tonygriff @ May 3 2008, 01:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>thats because petrol is still approx $1.20 a Gallon in the states. 1 US gallon = 3.8 liters. thats 31 US cents a liter.
or twenty cents a liter in euro. ............

Petrol in the US is now approximately $3.70 a US gallon, or €2.40 per US gallon €0.63 /litre
I don't know where you got the $1.20 from

As for the 2003 prices? in 2003 the US Dollar was worth €0.90, now it's worth €1.50, approx, so the price of crude oil has doubled, in real terms (Euro)

Oil is effectively priced in Euro, and hasn't increased substantially over the past year. Demand from India, US and China will be the determining factors in the future.
 
#10 ·
Saddam Hussein suggested that oil should be traded in €s instead of $s. It made sound financial sense, so they invaded Iraq and hung him. Maybe someone in Europe will come up with the same idea soon and save us all a few €€€s.
 
#13 ·
Costing more to transport it cos of the higher oil costs!
 
#17 ·
Lads, get yourselves over to "the pin" for really in depth explanations on many aspects of our economy. Admittedly it's primary focus is the property market but there are a few good threads on oil. If you can ignore the doom and gloom being preached there are actually some really insightful posts on there.
 
#18 ·
Can you imagine this headline back in the day 6 September 2000:

Oil prices reach ten-year high

Oil prices have risen to a ten-year high, driven by a continuation of strong global demand in the face of supply controls imposed by OPEC. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, a key barometer for the oil industry, rose by more than 30 cents this morning to more than $33 a barrel.

And then this doomsday report on the 07/05/2008

Oil price pauses at $122 a barrel

Oil took a breather below $122 a barrel today ahead of key US weekly inventory data, after hitting new record the previous day on supply concerns and a forecast of oil reaching over $200 a barrel within two years.


reasons for it:

That it is part of a "super-spike" driven by poor growth in oil supplies, and increased demand in India & China.
In addition to the continued tensions over Iran and Nigeria, are currently sending prices higher.

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#19 ·
And just so you know the full picture:

Nigerian militants attacked an oil ship off the coast of the west African country and took two people hostage over the weekend. Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, has seen an upsurge in violent attacks on its oil industry in the past two years.

Events surrounding Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil producer, also added support to prices today.

Yesterday Iran said it would reject any offer that violates its right to master the full nuclear fuel cycle after world powers said they had prepared a new package to end the atomic crisis. The West fears Iran could use uranium enrichment to make atomic weapons. Iran denies it wants to do this and insists it has a right to enrichment to make nuclear fuel as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.


Oil prices also continued to profit today from the weak dollar, which helps boost demand for commodities priced in the US unit, as they initially become cheaper for foreign buyers.

The recent record run in oil prices has sparked widespread international concern among consumer nations.
 
#20 ·
CNN online had a bit about how the states are finding more and more terrorists in West Africa lately, they had 1 battle ship there for 2 months a year up until this year, now theres several all year along with triple fold of troops, aircraft carriers and subs. West africa is supposedly the next big supplier of oil from its west coast. Why cant they give car companies the tax breaks to build low/0 emmision cars instead of the oil companies who are indeed still recieving tax breaks all around the world! I hear Shell is off digging for oil in places it gave up on or ignores years ago, because years ago it didnt make financial sense to take it, but now theyre making so much that they can afford to! Its mind boggling because theres so many different factors involved! Must have a look at the pen site!
 
#21 · (Edited by Moderator)
QUOTE (tonygriff @ May 3 2008, 01:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>thats because petrol is still approx $1.20 a Gallon in the states. 1 US gallon = 3.8 liters. thats 31 US cents a liter.
or twenty cents a liter in euro.
I was in the states 3 years ago for the F1 race in indy and we hired an RV . it had a 4.7 liter V10 petrol engine ! petrol prices then were $1 a gallon . it took $120 to fill it up . 120 gallons =approx 450 liters 450 lts @ E 1.30 = 585 euro
so we pay aprox 5 - 6 times the price of petrol in the US.

I read the American news daily (mostly local website - not the big media) and they would be flocking to anyplace that sold petrol for 1.20/gallon!!!! My son in Florida is paying roughly $3.50/gal and my sister in Michigan is paying about the same.

I'd say there is more at play here about the price of oil than simply the dollar-to-oil prices. The value of the US $ is a driver in the cost but so are other factors at play too - consumption in China goes up 5% per month, in India its about 3.5% per month. Only Brazil is coping with huge combustion engine growth but the have long held the view to use bio fuels and LPG. Also in the USA there is a capacity problem due to a lack of refineries - none built there in over 30 years - and a few operating at below capacity.

There's a tie in to big engines in the US still selling, there are more than 50 million boaters that pull pretty large boats, and millions of campers pulling caravans - its a way of life there. Granted smaller engines would lower consumption and recent sales figures all point in that direction. Even pick-up truck sales are down by large margins.

Perhaps new government will shift everyone's attention towards things like "what's your carbon footprint?"
 
#22 ·
The worst thing of all is that its getting more and more expansive for us but for the oil companies like BP are reaping all the profit.. They recently announced a ÂŁ10 billion profit over the last 2 years..

Oh and by the way rumour has it that oil drum prices are suppose to drop below $100 soon so that diesel prices will go down below the €1 mark
 
#23 ·
Vegetable Oil is 69c p/litre in Tescos......some TD engined cars will be running that in this warm weather!
 
#25 ·
and some people vote them back in!!